Who Wants To Predict The Future? COVID-19 Data Forecasting for Beginners

Let's get back to some basic math. 

Here is the data from May 22, 2020 as posted on the Florida COVID-19 Website.

It reveals some interesting information.

To begin with, the mortality rate of COVID-19 for the State of Florida is 4.4% (2,190/49,451 X 100 - divide the number of deaths by the number of positive cases and multiply by 100).

The mortality rate for Palm Beach County is 6.1% (311/5,072 X 100). This is the HIGHEST rate for any county in Florida. Yet it has been less than a week since the "defcon" rate for this county was upgraded.

So how can you prognosticate? Start by the realization that we have become a society so self-centered and focused on the fulfillment of personal desires that the responsibility for the greater good means nothing, and is often considered an inconvenience.

Combine that with the mobility rate practiced by citizens in their quest for self-enjoyment, and you have a recipe for spread and spike in the Coronavirus in Florida.

The county immediately to the north has repeatedly had to put in place "protective" guidelines (including closing boat ramps and requiring id for use of public beaches) as a result of the refusal of Palm Beach County residents to take reasonable protective measures.

Yet rather than behave responsibly, those residents continue to ignore reasonable guidelines (masks, social distancing, basic restraint) and impose their indifference to risk on others.

We have become an "immediate gratification" society, and if it doesn't happen within minutes of our expectation, we get angry. Look at the success of Amazon Prime as an example - "Next Day Delivery" has fueled an upsurge in the "I want it now!" syndrome.

It should come as no surprise that when there isn't an immediate upsurge in infection rates or deaths, people become even more lackadaisical in their precautions.

Let's look at some simple prediction guidelines. 

In terms of time frames, there are no absolutes - the time from exposure to symptoms has been given as a range of two days to two weeks. And the range from exposure to death can be three to five weeks. 

But these aren't absolutes either, just an approximation given a "perfect world" and laboratory conditions, as well as anecdotal evidence.

So now let's look at some Florida metrics. Notice how there is a subtle manipulation of the perception right out of the gate. 

The data in this histogram below doesn't show ALL of the new Florida cases, just those for individuals identified as Florida Residents. Yet there are many people in Florida that have residency elsewhere.

What does that mean in practical terms? The actual number of new cases in Florida is far higher than that shown when you add in the "Non Florida Residents".

Now look at the high data point on the left of the above graph - on April 23 the number was 1.2K, so by extrapolation, there should be a "spike" in deaths anywhere from one to three weeks later, give or take.

Voila, on May 4 - a "spike" in the data on the graph. And once again, keep in mind that this data is ONLY those individuals identified as Florida Residents.

Given the recent termination of the data chief for the Florida COVID-19 website I found it quite intriguing to see a "glitch" in the histograms for the Resident Deaths.

Above is the data posted on May 23, 2020, and below is the data from May 22, 2020.

In the graph from May 23, the death data reported for May 22, 2020 is 2, and for May 21,  18.

Yet ironically enough, the reporting on May 22 had the number of deaths on May 21 set at 2.  Somehow, 16 more deaths on May 21 "magically" appeared in 24 hours.

Once again, bear in mind that these numbers are only Florida Residents, not the data for deaths of people in Florida who are not identified as residents.

So how can you "predict the future"? Look once again at the histogram below.

There are two more "spikes" in the data as of yesterday. On May 16 there were 1.1K new cases, and on May 20, 1.2K new cases. (In case you aren't sure - K is shorthand for 1000, so 1,100 and 1,200 respectively.)

Given extrapolation, that means around today (one week after the May 16 spike) there should be a spike in deaths that could last a week or more. There should be a second spike beginning on or around May 27.

If you look at a calendar, that means there is going to be an overlap of those spikes in death rates. After all, the above two spikes were only four days apart.

Ironically, the first spike occurred two weeks after Florida entered it's Phase One reopening. This precipitated many individuals ignoring the ongoing request by the governor to continue to practice social distancing and wear masks.

And this is where "flatten the curve" comes into play. It is intended to reduce the strain on the healthcare system that will be caused by wave after wave of overlapping surges in hospitalizations based on these spikes.

What is the solution? 

Recognize that "There are no rights without responsibilities," means that although you have the right to freedom, you have the responsibility to not endanger your fellow humans with your flippant behaviors.

Mask up, keep your distance, be responsible.

Open Your...Mind (Not Your Restrictions)

I just need to put this out there.

Personal observations?

• Over 60% failure to wear masks and/or social distance. 
• Walking past signs that say "Mask Required" and ignoring/laughing.
• Getting "up close and personal" (two feet or less) with essential employees.
• Getting "up close and personal" (two feet or less) with other individuals.
• Pretending that COVID-19/Coronavirus doesn't exist and that it is "business as usual".
• Increasing number of license plates from states that have higher restrictions.

Be kind, be human, be respectful.

Wear a mask and keep your distance.

Covidlocks - A Fairy Tale from 2020

Covidlocks was born sometime in 2019, to the best of her recollection. After all, a young virus like her doesn't have much memory regarding her genesis in a lab.

When she reached an age when it was perceived that she would be able to survive on her own, she was released to find her way in the world.

She enjoyed travelling, and so quickly made her way around the world, sampling from all that humanity had to offer.

In time, she arrived in a new country, and quickly realized that something was different. Her arrival was greeted by hostility, and she found locked doors and shuttered businesses everywhere she went.

People were keeping their distance from her, and even were wearing masks. She began to find it difficult to travel.

But still she persisted, and entered in. And then she found that this was a place of contrasts and disputes.

Despite the fact that from north to south, east to west, and every area in between there were vast differences in climate, speech, and way of life, there were those that wanted to treat everyone identically.

Even Covidlocks realized that just as fish don't climb trees and cats don't behave logically, expecting to use a single "one size fits all" approach was not going to scare her off.

So she decided to find a place to stay to further study this diverse society.

The first place she tried to stay was shuttered tight - windows and doors locked and at first no answer to her knock on the door or ring of the doorbell. The beings within peered carefully out through small gaps in the stacks of toilet paper piled in front of the window - they were masked and gloved and armed with spray bottles of hand sanitizer.

When Covidlocks loudly asked for a place to stay, they screamed at her to stay away, and immediately began spraying the inside of their window with the sanitizer.

The second place she approached looked like there was a party in progress. Crowds of people were hugging and touching each other, not a mask or glove in sight, and it was packed wall to wall with all types of organisms.

Covidlocks spotted a family in the corner that she recognized as members of the Streptococcus clan, and she decided that she'd better find a different place to stay.

The third dwelling looked fairly normal in comparison to the first two and she decided to take her chances. After knocking on the door, the individuals within opened the door with a request that she remain on the porch while they heard her out.

Although they were masked, they made sure that they spoke clearly enough that Covidlocks could understand what they said. When she presented her request for a place to stay, they let her know that she could use their guest room that had it's own entrance and bathroom, but that they would appreciate if she did not attempt to use any of the rest of the house.

After agreeing to the terms, Covidlocks decided to head out to see what else was available. Feeling a bit hungry, she decided to search for a restaurant.

The first restaurant she approached looked dark and deserted, and when she peered in the windows, she saw the chairs stacked on top of the tables and cobwebs and dust.

The second dining establishment had tables packed so closely together that the wait staff could barely move between them to deliver food. There wasn't a mask or glove in sight on diners or employees.

Covidlocks decided to move on, and found a third place to eat. After a brief walk, she found a welcoming location that had both indoor and outdoor seating. She noticed that three out of every four tables inside had the chairs set on top to prevent seating, and outdoors she saw that the tables were placed quite a distance apart. All of the employees were wearing masks, and there was even a box of masks available for patrons to take one if they chose.

She watched a table leave, and immediately a busboy wearing gloves came over, cleared away all the dishes, and wiped down all the surfaces of the table and chairs with a cloth repeatedly rinsed in a bucket that smelled of bleach.

Covidlocks sat down and enjoyed a meal, not the best she had ever had, but the level of comfort in the environment made up for the food deficiencies.

After her meal, she decided to take a stroll to see what recreational amenities were available. First she passed a large skate park, gates locked and signs posted announcing its closure due to Pandemic. Shaking her head in disbelief, she didn't understand how an activity that by its very nature required distance could be considered "unsafe".

As she continued on her way, she noticed a beach with sunbathers packed towel to towel with not a speck of sand visible. People attempting to walk down the beach, in search of seashells or exercise, found it difficult to wend their way through the crowded bodies.

Finally, as she passed a public boat launch, where people waited their turn to put their boats in the water to go fishing, a stray gust of wind caught her long golden hair.

Covidlocks realized that it had been far too long since she had a blow out. She decided to find a salon to tame her unruly locks.

The first place she approached had a "Newly Reopened!" banner across the front, proclaiming its status. All the chairs inside were full of waiting customers, and there was a line going out the door. Every seat was full and not even the nail techs were wearing masks.

Covidlocks moved on to find another parlor. The next one, although it had six chairs, only had a single person working, and a sign on the door stating "Regular Customers Only, Call in Advance for an Appointment". A second sign proclaimed "Masks Required and Documentation of COVID-19 Negative Testing Mandatory".

Not feeling the love, Covidlocks moved on. She found a third spa that was open, and noticed that as a customer was leaving the beautician was wiping down the equipment and chair with Clorox wipes. As she entered, she noticed that the only chairs in use were spaced a body's length apart, and that all the employees were wearing masks. She made an appointment and was told that she needed to be on time or she would lose her place.

After her blowout, Covidlocks went back to the place she was staying to relax and contemplate life for a while. She reviewed everything that she had seen and experienced that day, and realized that she needed to FaceTime her Uncle Darwin later.

Apparently, despite her uncle's belief that nature would provide for adaptation of the fittest, she realized that the "common sense" gene had bypassed around two-thirds of the population.

Covidlocks realized that in times of difficulty, most people over or under reacted, often to an extreme degree. In their zeal, they attempt to impose their beliefs on everyone else, often with a "one size fits all" approach that is impractical at best.

Covidlocks knew that the "new normal" was like herding cats. Everyone had their own opinion of how best to proceed and most of it was not rooted in sound beliefs and practices. She lay back on the bed, perceiving that everyone was in for a bumpy ride and would need their rest.

The moral of this story? "It is time to turn away from self-interest and return to morality."