A MATH TEACHER LOOKS AT COVID-19 STATISTICS Part Two AMENDED

I hear a lot of chatter being thrown around the webiverse regarding Flu deaths compared to COVID-19 deaths.

It is patently obvious to me that many of you did NOT listen to your middle school math teacher, because accurately making this comparison involves computation of Unit Rate.

"When are we ever gonna need this?" NOW! 

Before you open your virtual mouth and let your fingers fly over that keyboard or tap on that screen do some simple division.

Why? Because when someone starts talking about apples, and you start describing oranges, you make yourself look like a fruitcake!

Unit Rate is a very simple concept. To compare numbers accurately, you must base them on the same single point of reference.

You have all seen unit rate on the shelf labels in grocery stores: it informs you how much an item costs per ounce, or per pound, or per any other unit by which it is sold.

Unit Rate involves division. For the comparison in question, COVID-19 deaths compared to Flu deaths, divide the total number of deaths to the time period over which they occurred.

USA COVID-19 Deaths (so far): 66,385 over a period of three and a half months (first USA case was January 21, 2020) or 103 days.

USA Flu Deaths: 62,000 (this is an estimated figure from the CDC based on modeling as an actual number of deaths isn't available due to reporting issues) over a period of twelve months or 365 days.

So the Unit Rates for an accurate comparison of these two is as follows:

Type	Monthly	Daily
Flu	5,167	170
COVID-19	18,968	645

These figures were derived by taking the total deaths and dividing by the period of time involved (months or days). And because there is no such thing as a decimal or fractional part of a person, the result was rounded UP.

Now let's start playing "Nerd Bingo" for those of you who would prefer to ignore the basic math.

Even if the number of deaths for Flu were the same as COVID-19 (raising the Flu death toll to 66,345),  the following results occur:

Type	Monthly	Daily
Flu	5,529	182
COVID-19	18,968	645

And for those of you who are still insisting that the Flu is worse, let's use the absolute upper value that the CDC reports as possible for deaths due to Flu - 79,000:

Type	Monthly	Daily
Flu	6,583	216
COVID-19	18,968	645

Finally, using that last value for Flu deaths, and projecting out a possible longer period of time here in the US (first Chinese case - November 17, 2019 which leads to a time period of 5-1/2 months or 168 days):

Type	Monthly	Daily
Flu	6583	216
COVID-19	12070	395

So regardless of how you tweak the numbers, COVID-19 is at least TWICE AS BAD as Flu.

Stop making yourself look ridiculous by comparing apples to oranges and do the basic math!

(And while you are at it, stay six feet away and wear a mask!)

Recent claims by armchair scientists and back-seat medical professionals tout the figure of 37,305 by the CDC as the most accurate count of COVID-19 deaths. So let me repost the data using that figure :

At 62,000 Flu deaths per year

Type	Monthly	Daily
Flu	5167	170
COVID-19	6783	222

At 66,345 Flu deaths per year

Type	Monthly	Daily
Flu	5529	182
COVID-19	6783	222

At 79,000 Flu deaths per year

Type	Monthly	Daily
Flu	6583	216
COVID-19	6783	222

So even at the WORST CASE Flu scenario, COVID-19 has already beat it, hands down! 

And that is with all the precautions that have been put into place regarding masks, social distancing, partial/full shutdowns - things that have not been put in place for the Flu.
Let's face it, the numbers don't lie - COVID-19/Coronavirus is WORSE than people realize!

So suck it up buttercup. Put on your mask, stay six feet away, and stop the kvetching.

In the words of Ghandi, "There are no rights without responsibilities!" and some of you just don't get it.

A MATH TEACHER LOOKS AT COVID-19 STATISTICS

"When are we ever gonna have to use this?"

As a teacher, my math students used to ask me that question frequently when they couldn't see an immediate application for a skill in their lives.

I wish that more of you had paid attention when your teachers had presented simple statistics (mean, median, mode, and range) because it might help you have a better grasp of what is occurring with COVID-19.

Let me reteach you now using the data from where I live.

St Lucie County lies directly to the north of me:

You might not think that 9 cases is much, but lets examine the range (the actual lowest and highest values in a set of data).

A 19 year old and a 77 year old have contracted the disease. Two days ago the lowest value in the range was 24. So that means that we know three of the 9 data pieces - 19, 24, and 77.

Many of you should be concerned that two out of nine victims are under the age of 65 (the lower value of the range that used to be considered "at risk").

Average? Add up all the values and divide by how many there are.

Well, we don't know six of the numbers, but a little algebra can give us an idea. Using the letters a through f to represent the ages of the six unknowns, we can write the following equation:

(19 + 24 + a + b + c + d + e + f + 77)/9 = 46

Then we work to solve it as follows:

(120 + a + b + c + d + e + f)/9 = 46 (add the three ages we know)

(120 + a + b + c + d + e + f) = 414 (multiply each sides by 9)

(a + b + c + d + e + f) = 294 (subtract 120 from each side)

Now we use a little creativity. We will pretend that the remaining ages are all the same to get a closer estimate.

6a =294

a = 49

What this means is that the remaining six people are clustered around the age of 49. 

Remember that the youngest two are 19 and 24, and the oldest one is 77. So any pairs of two ages must average out to 49 (example 25 and 73, 26 and 72, 27 and 71, etc). 

This closer look demonstrates that the majority of the cases in St. Lucie County are under the age of 49 - which lands them in a group that previously was not considered at risk.

With a little bit more insight into the statistics, look at this morning's snapshot of Palm Beach County to the south.

Once again, the average age is 49 (which means around half of those diagnosed are under the age of 49). But what is more troubling is that the range is 6 to 88.

Six?? Children were supposed to be at low risk for this illness. 

But consider this - if a child gets sick, even with mild symptoms, they have lowered immunity. 

Lowered immunity means that if the child is exposed to other conditions - strep throat, staff infections, other bacterial or viral infections, they are far more likely to get a secondary illness.

Yes, school is out indefinitely and many people are beginning to appreciate the job that teachers do for 180+ days a year, but that doesn't mean you should entertain your children by taking them out into an environment that is a health risk.

Now that you have a better grasp of the math for these simple statistics, look at Martin County. Follow the example from Palm Beach County and see if you can extrapolate (predict) the ages of the diagnosed cases.

Are you there yet?

Approximately half of those cases are under the age of 58. Yet initially the high risk age group began at 65.

Why the difference for all these counties? Failure to take the health threat seriously. Even worse, behaving in a way that directly countermands the safe guidelines.

"It's hot enough to kill the virus!" Really? Human body temperature is around 98.6 degrees, more or less. When is the last time the temperature got that hot for a even an hour  or two (much less a few days)? 

Indicators are that this virus prefers hard/non-porous surfaces (like boats, jet skis, "refreshment" bottles and cups and cans)...you get the idea.

Let me ask the question differently. 

I'm not asking if you are willing to stay home for 15 days. 

I'm asking if you think 15 days staying home is a reasonable price to pay for the life of your grandparents, parents, elderly aunts and uncles, young family members. 

Can you give up two weeks to help ensure that you aren't the person who inadvertently causes the death of another?

Now that you know this isn't just an "old person's problem", are you willing to temporarily change your behaviors?

Do the math for yourself. It's not hard to figure out!